Scenario Building for Iran-Saudi Arabia Foreign Relations Amidst Regional Developments in Southwest Asia

Document Type : Iran's foreign policy

Authors

1 PhD student, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz Branch, Tabriz, Iran.

2 Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz Branch, Tabriz, Iran.

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Islamic Studies, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

This study, employing a futurology approach, examines current and potential trends in the foreign relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia and their impact on developments in the West Asia region. By analyzing historical experiences, and political, economic, and security developments in both countries from the period of the Imposed War to contemporary times, this research utilizes scenario-based and matrix foresight methods to outline potential scenarios for bilateral relations and their regional repercussions. The findings indicate that Iran-Saudi relations are influenced not only by each country's internal developments and foreign policies but also decisively by the policies of extra-regional powers, economic and energy competition, geopolitical shifts, and security crises. By presenting three probable scenarios—escalation of tensions, continuation of controlled rivalry, and expansion of strategic cooperation—this paper analyzes the consequences of each scenario on the stability, security, and regional alliances in West Asia. The results demonstrate that the future of Iran-Saudi relations will directly impact the formation of alliances, energy and security competitions, and the geopolitical landscape of the region.

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References

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State Studies of Contemporary Iran
Volume 11, Issue 4 - Serial Number 4
winter 2026
January 2026
Pages 135-165

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History

  • Receive Date: 03 November 2025
  • Revise Date: 05 December 2025
  • Accept Date: 06 December 2025
  • Publish Date: 22 December 2025

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