سناریو چالش های آینده پیش روی دولت در جمهوری اسلامی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار و عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه پلیس، تهران، ایران

2 مدرس دانشگاه و دانشجوی دکتری علوم سیاسی،مطالعات سیاسی انقلاب اسلامی دانشگاه شاهد،تهران، ایران

چکیده

حوادث و اتفاقات در طول حیات انقلاب اسلامی بسیار عدیده و گاهاً با شدت و ضعف های زیادی روبرو بوده است، بررسی این رویدادها می تواند بینش خوبی جهت حل مشکلات کنونی و ترسیم نگاه به آینده را درپی داشته باشد. دنیای امروز دنیای پرتلاطمی است و در این فضا شناخت آن بسیار حائز اهمیت است و با آشنایی هرچه بیشتر می توان از آسیب ها جلوگیری یا از فرصت ها کمال استفاده را برد. انقلاب اسلامی ایران چالش های متعددی در داخل و خارج دارد که از آن جمله می توان به چالش های برخورد جریانات سیاسی، محیط زیستی، قومیتی، اقتصاد، زنان، امنیتی، فرقه های نوظهور، رسانه و فضای مجازی و... اشاره کرد. هدف این است که هرکدام از این مولفه ها چه تاثیری در آینده انقلاب دارند، فرضیه های مطرح در این مقاله برآن است که آینده پیش رو دارند و حول یک چالش مطرح اگر اتفاقی حول یکی از چالش های مطرح شده بیفتد چه سناریویی باید در جهت مقابله ی با آن پیاده سازی شود. روش تحقیق کتابخانه ای_ اینترنتی بکارگرفته شده است. انقلاب اسلامی ایران با چالش های قدیمی خود دسته پنجه نرم می کند ولی ماهیت ارزشی آن باعث شده است که از همه انقلاب ها مستثنی باشد، اما نگاه رو به جلو و تحلیل سناریوهای مختلف در همه ابعاد آینده های"ممکن"،"محتمل" و "مطلوب" باید مورد واکاوی قرار بگیرد که در این پژوهش قصد داریم با بررسی چالش های داخلی و خارجی پیش روی آن به درک تقریبی از آینده نگری صحیح برسیم.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The scenario of future challenges facing the Islamic revolution

نویسندگان [English]

  • mohammad sajad shiroody 1
  • mohamad bagher mokaramipor 2
1 office
2 خببهزث
چکیده [English]

The incidents and events during the life of the Islamic Revolution are very numerous and sometimes they have faced many intensities and weaknesses. Examining these events can lead to a good insight to solve the current problems and draw a vision for the future. Today's world is a turbulent world, and in this space it is very important to know it, and by knowing more and more, you can avoid damages or take full advantage of opportunities. Iran's Islamic Revolution has many challenges inside and outside, among which we can mention the challenges of meeting political currents, environment, ethnicity, economy, women, security, emerging sects, media and virtual space, etc. The goal is to find out what effect each of these components has on the future of the revolution, the hypotheses presented in this article are that they have a future ahead of them, and around a challenge, if something happens around one of the challenges, what scenario should be used to deal with it? be implemented with it. Internet-library research method has been used. Iran's Islamic Revolution is grappling with its old challenges, but its value nature has caused it to be excluded from all revolutions, but looking ahead and analyzing different scenarios in all dimensions of "possible", "probable" and "Desirable" should be analyzed. In this research, we intend to reach an approximate understanding of the correct future by examining the internal and external challenges facing it.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Scenario
  • future research
  • Islamic revolution
  • challenges
  • social faults

Smiley face

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