سناریونگاری روابط خارجی ایران و عربستان در خلال تحولات منطقه‌ای جنوب‌غرب آسیا

ولیپور, زهرا; یوسفی جویباری, محمد; قربانی گلشن آباد, محمد

سناریونگاری روابط خارجی ایران و عربستان در خلال تحولات منطقه‌ای جنوب‌غرب آسیا

نوع مقاله : سیاست خارجی ایران

نویسندگان

¹ دانشجوی دکتری، گروه علوم سیاسی و روابط بین الملل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تبریز، تبریز، ایران.

² دانشیار گروه علوم سیاسی و روابط بین الملل، دانشگاه آزاداسلامی واحد تبریز، تبریز، ایران.

³ استادیار گروه معارف اسلامی دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

این نوشتار با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی به بررسی روندهای جاری و محتمل در روابط خارجی ایران و عربستان سعودی و تأثیر آن بر تحولات منطقه غرب آسیا می‌پردازد. با تحلیل تجارب تاریخی، تحولات سیاسی–اقتصادی و امنیتی دو کشور از دوران جنگ تحمیلی تا دوره‌های معاصر، این مطالعه با استفاده از روش‌های آینده‌پژوهی سناریو محور و ماتریسی، سناریوهای احتمالی روابط دوجانبه و تأثیرات منطقه‌ای آن‌ها را ترسیم می‌کند. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که روابط ایران و عربستان نه تنها تحت تأثیر تحولات داخلی و سیاست خارجی دو کشور است، بلکه سیاست‌های قدرت‌های فرامنطقه‌ای، رقابت اقتصادی و انرژی، تحولات ژئوپلیتیک و بحران‌های امنیتی نیز نقش تعیین‌کننده‌ای دارند. این نوشتار با ارائه سه سناریوی محتمل،تشدید تنش‌ها، استمرار رقابت کنترل‌شده و گسترش همکاری استراتژیک به تحلیل پیامدهای هر سناریو بر ثبات، امنیت و اتحادهای منطقه‌ای غرب آسیا می‌پردازد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که آینده روابط ایران و عربستان، تأثیر مستقیم بر نحوه شکل‌گیری ائتلاف‌ها، رقابت‌های انرژی و امنیتی و چشم‌انداز ژئوپلیتیکی منطقه خواهد داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

اندیشه سیاسی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Scenario Building for Iran-Saudi Arabia Foreign Relations Amidst Regional Developments in Southwest Asia

نویسندگان [English]

Zahra Vlipoor ¹
Mohammad Yousefi jouibari ²
Mohammad Ghorbani golshanabad ³

¹ PhD student, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz Branch, Tabriz, Iran.

² Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz Branch, Tabriz, Iran.

³ Assistant Professor, Department of Islamic Studies, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.

چکیده [English]

This study, employing a futurology approach, examines current and potential trends in the foreign relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia and their impact on developments in the West Asia region. By analyzing historical experiences, and political, economic, and security developments in both countries from the period of the Imposed War to contemporary times, this research utilizes scenario-based and matrix foresight methods to outline potential scenarios for bilateral relations and their regional repercussions. The findings indicate that Iran-Saudi relations are influenced not only by each country's internal developments and foreign policies but also decisively by the policies of extra-regional powers, economic and energy competition, geopolitical shifts, and security crises. By presenting three probable scenarios—escalation of tensions, continuation of controlled rivalry, and expansion of strategic cooperation—this paper analyzes the consequences of each scenario on the stability, security, and regional alliances in West Asia. The results demonstrate that the future of Iran-Saudi relations will directly impact the formation of alliances, energy and security competitions, and the geopolitical landscape of the region.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Futurology
Iran-Saudi Arabia Relations
Probable Scenarios
Trends
Events
Geopolitical Developments in West Asia

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