Iran–Iraq relations have long been influenced by shared water resources and the hydropolitical interactions arising from them. In recent years, intensified climate change, prolonged droughts, the expansion of dam construction projects in the upstream Tigris–Euphrates basin, and increasing water demand have significantly elevated the importance of hydropolitics in bilateral relations. Accordingly, this study aims to identify and explain the principal hydropolitical factors affecting Iran–Iraq relations during the 2020–2024 period. This timeframe was selected because it witnessed major developments in transboundary water management, intensified climate change impacts, accelerated upstream dam construction, and the growing significance of water diplomacy in regional relations.
This research is an applied study employing a descriptive–analytical design with a mixed-methods (qualitative–quantitative) approach. In the qualitative phase, the principal hydropolitical components were identified through documentary and literature review. In the quantitative phase, the Delphi technique was employed to evaluate the importance of these components based on the opinions of 35 experts. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and the Binomial Test in SPSS.
The findings indicate that the expansion of dam construction in the Tigris–Euphrates basin, alterations in the flow regime of transboundary rivers, increasing drought conditions, pollution of shared water resources, growing agricultural water demand, and disputes concerning the Shatt al-Arab (Arvand Rud) constitute the most significant hydropolitical factors affecting Iran–Iraq relations. The results further reveal that hydropolitical tensions stem less from absolute water scarcity than from the governance, management, and allocation of shared water resources. Therefore, strengthening water diplomacy, enhancing cooperative institutional mechanisms, and promoting sustainable transboundary water governance can play a vital role in reducing tensions and fostering long-term cooperation between Iran and Iraq.